流感世界大流行的气候特征     

杨冬红  杨学祥 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2007,1(3):1-8

流感爆发与气候的剧烈变化有关。本文揭示了拉马德雷冷位相、拉尼娜、太阳黑子极值年、厄尔尼诺、低温冷害、沙尘暴、潮汐南北震荡异常与流行性感冒世界大流行相互对应的关系及其物理机制,对气候及其相关灾害的预测有重大科学意义。规律表明,在拉马德雷冷位相时期,全球强震、低温、飓风伴随拉尼娜、全球性流感伴随厄尔尼诺将越来越强烈。面对日益增大的全球灾害,长期气候预报意义重大。  相似文献   

潮汐和地震对全球气候变化的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨冬红  杨学祥 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2007,1(4):5-12

2004年12月26日印尼地震海啸后,全球低温冻害和暴雪灾害频繁发生。"潮汐调温说"和"深海巨震降温说"是一种合理的解释。根据"潮汐调温说"和"深海巨震降温说"理论,2005年全球气温将因为印尼地震海啸和强潮汐南北震荡而降低。美国国家航空航天局(NASA)的科学家认为,一个较弱的厄尔尼诺现象和人类排放的温室气体将使2005年成为人类有记载以来最热的一年。事实上,2005年的温度低于1998年。现在,西方科学家也承认了2005—2007年自然气候的变化抵消了全球气候变暖效应这一客观事实。  相似文献   

AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK     

李建云  丁裕国  史久恩 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1998,4(2):215-219

Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.  相似文献   

El Nino事件当年和次年夏季低纬环流特征的初步分析          下载免费PDF全文

阮均石 《大气科学学报》1998,21(4):737-742

分析1950年以来中等强度以上的ElNiño和LaNina当年和次年夏季(7月)低纬度风场和500hPa高度距平场,发现有不同的特征。其中中-西太平洋近赤道地区850、200hPa上风场异常变化十分明显,这种异常变化与南北半球大气相互作用有密切关系。在500hPa高度距平场上,北半球中、高和低纬地区表现出不同的正、负距平分布型式。上述特点对气候短期预测有一定参考意义。  相似文献   

Connections Between Different Types of El Ni~no and Southern/Northern Oscillation          下载免费PDF全文

PENG Jingbei  ZHANG Qingyun  CHEN Lieting 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(4):506-516

It has long been acknowledged that there are two types of El Ni(n)o events,i.e.,the eastern Pacific El Ni(n)o (EE) and the central Pacific El Ni(n)o (CE),according to the initial position of the anomalous warm water and its propagation direction.In this paper,the oceanic and atmospheric evolutions and the possible mechanisms of the two types of El Ni(n)o events were examined.It is found that all the El Ni(n)o events,CE or EE,could be attributed to the joint impacts of the eastward advection of warm water from the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the local warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific.Before the occurrence of CE events,WPWP had long been in a state of being anomalous warm,so the strength of eastward advection of warm water was much stronger than that of EE,which played a major role in the formation of CE.While for the EE events,most contribution came from the local warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific.It is further identified that the immediate cause leading to the difference of the two types of El Ni(n)o events was the asynchronous variations of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Northern Oscillation (NO) as defined by Chen in 1984.When the transition from the positive phase of the NO (NO+) to NO- was prior to that from SO+ to SO-,there would be eastward propagation of westerly anomalies from the tropical western Pacific induced by NO and hence the growth of warm sea surface temperature anomalies in WPWP and its eastward propagation.This was followed by lagged SO-induced weakening of southeast trade winds and local warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific.These were conducive to the occurrence of the CE.On the contrary,the transition from SO+ to SO- leading the transition of NO would favor the occurrence of EE type events.  相似文献   

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郭琳  刘玉光  刘雪源  吕学珠  李轶斐 《大地测量与地球动力学》2009,29(4):64-69

????1992??11???2007??5?μ???????????????????????????仯???????????????1???????24~42???μ???????Я???????????ENSO?????2??SLA_2442?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????3?????????У????????????SLA_2442?????????·??????O???Σ??????????????,??γ????????λ??????9.86??N??8??S??????  相似文献   

海面温度异常时间序列的谱分析     

杜军  修延霞  罗爱军  晋海龙 《测绘信息与工程》2009,34(6):38-39

利用了傅里叶功率谱和小波功率谱分析方法,分析了太平洋中、东部地区海面温度异常时间序列的时频特征,发现了海面温度异常信号具有2~6年左右的周期特征。  相似文献   

Perturbed solution of sea-air oscillator for the E1 Ni(n)o/La Ni(n)a-Southern Oscillation mechanism     

ZHOU Xianchun  LIN Yihua  WANG Hui  MO Jiaqi 《海洋学报(英文版)》2009,28(3)

A class of coupled system of the E1 Ni(n)o/La Ni(n)a-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO model are obtained and the asymptotic behavior of solution for corresponding problem is considered.  相似文献   

Observations of the North Equatorial Current,Mindanao Current,and Kuroshio current system during the 2006/07 El Niño and 2007/08 La Niña   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yuji Kashino  Norievill España  Fadli Syamsudin  Kelvin J. Richards  Tommy Jensen  Pierre Dutrieux  Akio Ishida 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(3):325-333

Two onboard observation campaigns were carried out in the western boundary region of the Philippine Sea in December 2006 and January 2008 during the 2006/07 El Niño and the 2007/08 La Niña to observe the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Mindanao Current (MC), and Kuroshio current system. The NEC and MC measured in late 2006 under El Niño conditions were stronger than those measured during early 2008 under La Niña conditions. The opposite was true for the current speed of the Kuroshio, which was stronger in early 2008 than in late 2006. The increase in dynamic height around 8°N, 130°E from December 2006 to January 2008 resulted in a weakening of the NEC and MC. Local wind variability in this region did not appear to contribute to changes in the current system.  相似文献   

Singularly perturbed solution of coupled model in atmosphere-ocean for global climate   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jiaqi Mo  Wantao Lin  Hui Wang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2008,18(2):193-196

A box model of the interhemispheric thermohaline circulation （THC） in atmosphere-ocean for global climate is considered. By using the multi-scales method, the asymptotic solution of a simplified weakly nonlinear model is discussed. Firstly, by introducing first scale, the zeroth order approximate solution of the model is obtained. Secondly, by using the multi-scales, the first order approximate equation of the model is found. Finally, second order approximate equation is formed to eliminate the secular terms, and a uniformly valid asymptotic expansion of solution is decided. The multi-scales solving method is an analytic method which can be used to analyze operation sequentially. And then we can also study the diversified qualitative and quantitative behaviors for corresponding physical quantities. This paper aims at providing a valid method for solving a box model of the nonlinear equation.  相似文献